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Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Wednesday any decision about an Israeli attack on Iran was “very far off”.
Barak was speaking on Israel’s Army Radio before a planned visit on Thursday by US armed forces chief General Martin Dempsey that has triggered speculation Washington will press Israel to delay any action against Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Barak’s remarks suggest that Iran, which denies trying to make a nuclear bomb while defying international censure of its secretive uranium enrichment and missile projects, has not yet advanced past what Israel might deem a critical threshold.
Asked if the United States has asked Israel to tell them before any assault against Iran, Barak said, “We haven’t made any decision to do this. This entire thing is very far off.”
Barak also hinted that Israel — presumed to have the only nuclear warheads in the region — was coordinating with Washington its plans to deal with Tehran’s nuclear project.
“I don’t think our ties with the United States are such that they have no idea what we are talking about,” he said.
When asked whether “very far off” meant weeks or months, Barak said, “I wouldn’t want to provide any estimates. It’s certainly not urgent.” The March leadership election in Israel’s main opposition Kadima party “will happen sooner,” he said.
Iran says its nuclear work is solely for peaceful purposes. Barak said that, were the Islamic Republic to decide to enrich uranium to weapons-grade purity, it would first have to call off cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog agency.
“Such an action would provide solid proof that indeed time has run out and this would be liable to either worsen the sanctions or other action against them,” Barak said.
“They don’t want this (more sanctions or other action). That’s why they don’t do it, not because they have given up their plan or because they have ceased advancing to achieve immunity for their operations,” he said, the latter referring to Iran’s activating an enrichment plant in a fortified mountain.
Asked for an assessment on how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear warhead, were it to make that decision, Barak said, “It’s not a matter of years. There are those who say a year, or a year and half, it does not make much of difference.”
“I don’t want to relate to it (weaponisation) as though tomorrow it will happen,” he said.
Options
Saudi Arabia will use “all available options” to defend itself against Iranian “threats” that might trigger “unwanted military confrontation,” its former intelligence chief told a Gulf security conference.
Prince Turki al-Faisal’s comments to the conference in Bahrain late on Tuesday came after Tehran demanded Riyadh rethink its offer to make up for any oil lost to world markets as a result of threatened curbs on Iranian exports.
“Any threat to our interests or security will force us to use all available options to defend our interests, and national and regional security,” Faisal said in remarks carried by the Al-Arabiya news channel.
“The mounting escalation and persistent tensions might end up in an adventure with unpredictable consequences or in an unwanted military confrontation.”
Iran has warned Western governments that it will close the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf, a strategic choke point for much of the Middle East’s oil, if they press ahead with sanctions against its key crude exports.
“Iran must not fuel this conflict and must not threaten us when we commit to international decisions,” Faisal said.
“It must neutralise the security of the Strait of Hormuz and that of the world energy supply,” said Faisal, who is also a former Saudi ambassador in both London and Washington.
But Iran, “our partner in achieving the objective of security across the region, based on peaceful foundations, has chosen a different policy that constantly undermines regional security and provokes foreign interventions, which it claims it is trying to get rid of.”
Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdul-Kareem Luaibi in his new role as president of OPEC said he will visit Iran on Thursday to discuss oil market stability and seek Tehran’s assurances on the protection of waterways and oil supplies.
His comments on Wednesday follow recent threats from Tehran that it would stop oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed on Iran’s oil exports.
“I will go to Iran to encourage our brothers to express real and important assurances to the world that everyone is keen to protect the waterways and to protect the process of production and export of oil in the region,” Luaibi said.
“Otherwise, anything less will affect the whole world and will affect the global economy,” he said.
He said Iraq was against the use of oil in politics and that OPEC was keen to seek stability in oil production and prices.
Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important oil shipping route — have risen in recent weeks after Iran threatened to block it.
Producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates all use it to move crude to customers around the world.
The West is considering sanctions on Iranian oil exports over its disputed nuclear program. Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz if its exports are disrupted.
Iran said on Wednesday it was in touch with big powers to hold fresh talks soon but the European Union denied it, with Britain saying Tehran had yet to show willingness for negotiations on its disputed nuclear work without preconditions.
A year after the last talks collapsed, tensions are rising with the United States and EU preparing to embargo Iran’s lifeblood oil industry over its refusal to suspend a nuclear programme that the West suspects is meant to develop atom bombs.
Iranian politicians said US President Barack Obama had expressed readiness to negotiate in a letter to Tehran, a step that might relieve tensions behind several oil price spikes and growing fears of military conflict in the Gulf.
“Negotiations are going on about venue and date. We would like to have these negotiations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told reporters during a visit to Turkey.
“Most probably, I am not sure yet, the venue will be Istanbul. The day is not yet settled, but it will be soon.”
A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, representing the six powers, denied there were any fresh discussions with the Islamic Republic to organise a meeting.
“There are no negotiations under way on new talks,” he said in Brussels. “We are still waiting for Iran to respond to the substantive proposals the High Representative (Ashton) made in her letter from October.”
Strike
Russia on Wednesday said a military strike on Iran would be a “catastrophe” with the severest consequences that risked inflaming existing tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also accused the West of trying to suffocate the Iranian economy and incite popular discontent with new sanctions such as a proposed oil embargo.
“As for the chances of this catastrophe happening, you would have to ask those constantly mentioning it as an option that remains on the table,” Lavrov said when asked about the chances of military action.
Lavrov told an annual foreign policy briefing that the chances of war were too dire too contemplate because they would incite inter-communal tensions in the region and flood neighbouring countries with Iranian refugees.
“I have no doubt in the fact that it will only add fuel to the fire of the still-simmering Sunni-Shiite conflict. And I do not know where the subsequent chain reaction will end.
“There will be large flows of refugees from Iran, including to Azerbaijan, and from Azerbaijan to Russia. ... This will not be a walk in the park,” he said of possible military involvement.
The United States on Tuesday sidestepped suggestions it was not on the same page as Israel on the speed and efficacy of sanctions designed to reverse Iran’s nuclear drive.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers on Monday that the sanctions would not deter Tehran from building a nuclear weapon unless they targeted Iran’s central bank and its petroleum sector.
But the White House preferred to highlight a comment the Israeli leader made to “The Australian” newspaper that Iran had begun to “wobble” under increasingly tough US and European Union punishments.
Asked whether Israel and Washington differed on the pace and method of measures to deter Iran, President Obama’s spokesman Jay Carney said it was a “demonstrable” fact that the power of current sanctions was unprecedented.
“We have worked very closely with the Israeli government, with the Prime Minister, as we do on a number of issues, and we believe that the approach we’ve taken has put unprecedented pressure on Iran to change its behavior.”
Carney said the sanctions had also started to provoke tensions within the Iranian regime, amid reports that the measures were having a direct impact on the Iranian economy and currency.
On Monday, in remarks transmitted through a spokesman, Netanyahu said “the current sanctions employed against Iran harm the Iranians, but not in a way that could bring to a halt in the country’s nuclear program.”
“Without significant sanctions on the central bank and petroleum exports, Iran will continue to advance its nuclear plans.”
But in the interview with “The Australian” Netanyahu had a more upbeat assessment of the sanctions regime.
“For the first time, I see Iran wobble under the sanctions that have been adopted and especially under the threat of strong sanctions on their central bank,” he said.
Japan’s finance minister expressed concern Wednesday about the effectiveness of US sanctions on Iran and their potential impact on Japanese banks.
Jun Azumi’s comments came as a delegation US government officials began talks with Japanese counterparts about the sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry in a bid to thwart what Western governments say is an effort to develop nuclear weapons.
Japan has given mixed signals on the sanctions. Azumi declared last week that Japan would move quickly to reduce its oil imports from Iran after meeting with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, but other officials including the prime minister have said economic implications need to be considered.
Azumi also struck a more cautious tone Wednesday, telling journalists at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan that if the sanctions were imposed immediately, they could sustain “tremendous” damage to Japanese banks. The sanctions would bar financial institutions from the American market if they do business with Iran’s central bank.
“We want to take steps to keep the damage to the Japanese economy to a minimum,” Azumi said.
Japan imports about 9 percent of its oil from Iran and has been steadily reducing that percentage in recent years. Analysts say Japan will likely turn to other major oil suppliers to offset any further declines from Iran.
Azumi said he understood the potential danger of Iran’s nuclear program, but also acknowledged “there were some concerns” that the sanctions would not be effective in convincing Iranian authorities.
He added that “Russia and China hold the keys to resolving this situation.”
China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, remains unwilling to back an oil embargo against Iran. South Korea also has remained non-committal.
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